If you’ve been watching Australia’s property market closely, especially here in Sydney, you’ll know that federal elections tend to cast long shadows – both before and after polling day. From buyer sentiment to policy shifts and investor behaviour, the months following an election can shape the market’s direction for years to come.
What Has Happened to Property Post-Election in the Past?
2007 – The Rudd Wave and a Confidence Surge
- When Kevin Rudd’s Labor government came to power after the Howard era, confidence in infrastructure and housing investment surged.
- House prices in Sydney rose 6.4% in the year following the 2007 election, and first homebuyer activity increased off the back of grants and economic stimulus.
2013 – Abbott, Austerity, and Market Uncertainty
- The Coalition’s return under Tony Abbott brought tighter fiscal rhetoric and a shift in tone.
- House price growth slowed nationally, with Sydney only just holding onto a 4.9% gain in 2014, down from over 15% the previous year.
- Investor lending dipped 8% in the six months post-election as tax and regulation reviews were anticipated.
2016 – Close Call, Big Pause
- The 2016 election was a narrow one, and uncertainty lingered.
- CoreLogic data shows national property transactions dropped 10% in the three months following the election, with Sydney volumes down even more as buyers waited for clarity.
2019 – The Negative Gearing Election
- Labor’s proposal to reform negative gearing and capital gains tax became a lightning rod for investors.
- In the lead-up to the election, investor finance dropped 20% year-on-year.
- When the Coalition retained power, the market breathed a sigh of relief – and Sydney property values jumped 3.5% in the next quarter alone.
- Some called it “the election bounce.”
Investor caution pre-election gave way to renewed confidence, particularly after policy clarity on negative gearing and capital gains tax remained intact.
The Labor government’s housing promises, including the Housing Australia Future Fund and shared equity schemes, signalled a greater federal involvement in affordability – though rollout has been slower than anticipated.
Interest rates – although largely driven by the RBA – combined with fiscal policies aimed at controlling inflation, placed extra pressure on borrowing power and housing demand, especially in Sydney’s already pricey market.
But perhaps more interesting is what didn’t happen: property prices in Sydney didn’t crash post-election, despite widespread concern. Instead, they dipped briefly in 2022-23, then began a steady upward climb as confidence returned, migration increased, and stock remained tight.
So What About 2025?
With the next federal election just around the corner, it’s déjà vu – but with higher stakes.
- Housing supply and affordability are front and centre. Labor promises to deliver 1.2 million homes over five years, while the Coalition is granting superannuation access for first-home buyers. Both will influence market dynamics, especially if supply or demand shocks materialise.
- Tax policy reform remains a sleeping giant. Whispers about changes to property-related tax incentives could spook parts of the market if made policy.
- The ongoing pressure of population growth and migration, which is pushing Sydney’s rental and purchase markets to new highs – especially in key lifestyle suburbs and urban fringes.
What Can We Expect Post-Election This Time?
Historically, federal elections bring short-term uncertainty followed by stabilisation – and often renewed momentum. If that pattern holds, here’s what we may see:
- A temporary pause in buyer activity leading into election day – followed by a return of pent-up demand once the political dust settles.
- Investors waiting on the sidelines, especially if there’s potential tax reform or changes to tenant protections.
- A possible uptick in new development announcements, if government housing targets begin to convert into real policy and planning decisions.
Campaign Chaos – Politicians Warping the Property Market
From off-the-cuff comments to bold reform promises, here are a few times Aussie politics sent shockwaves through the property market – sometimes in ways no one saw coming:
2004 –
“Who do you trust
to keep interest
rates low”
In a now-infamous campaign line, then-Prime Minister John Howard promised interest rates would stay low under his government. The statement triggered a 7% spike in property transactions in the 3 months following the election, driven by investor confidence. However, rates climbed soon after, prompting outrage and a dip in consumer trust – home loan applications dropped by 14% in the following quarter.
2012 –
The ‘Mining Tax’
Ripple Effect
Labor’s mining tax proposal created market uncertainty, especially in WA and parts of NSW reliant on the sector. While not directly tied to Sydney, the sentiment bled nationwide – median property prices in inner Sydney stagnated for two quarters, despite predictions of a boom.
2019 –
The Rumour that
Scared
Homeowners
It didn’t take long. Just days after Prime Minister Scott Morrison called a federal election on April 10, a scare campaign was already gaining traction online. By the weekend, claims were circulating on social media that the opposition planned to introduce a “40 percent death tax.” And the message stuck.
Google Trends data showed a sharp surge in searches like “death tax Labor” in the lead-up to the May 18 election – with Queensland hitting the maximum score of 100 on the trends index.
2022 –
The ‘Housing
Affordability’
Tug-of-War
Just two years ago, both major parties were competing on housing affordability schemes, this caused a short-term surge in first home buyer activity due to fear of missing out completely. The number of first-home buyer loans jumped by 14.5% in May if that year. However once the schemes were clarified post-election, the market cooled just as quickly.
